介绍:
非常感谢热心听众“沉默基因”对本文稿的贡献！
H: AlphaGo's win over one of the world's best Go players has got us wondering about which direction artificial intelligence is heading. Will robots beat humans in areas beyond playing an ancient chess game, or have they already done so? IT industry heavy weights, Jack Ma, Lei Jun and Mark Zuckerberg, have offered their views on the prospects of artificial intelligence at the China Development Forum in Beijing just a couple of days ago. So guys, where are we at right now in terms of artificial intelligence development?
N: well, in terms of the story you just mentioned, we’re talking about the computer program AlphaGo which plays the game Go, and it played the game at best five seriesagainst the grandmaster, Lee Sedol, from South Korean, who is one the greatest or the best I think player of the game in the world. And the machine won 4-1 in the final match (HY: It was one victory!) for the human side, isn’t it, so the AlphaGo program has the capacity of learning for itself and learning new strategies as the game goes on, so even if you the game by beating, it can learn how you play, learn you know, your moves, the way you think as a player (HY: oh, Nik!) I’m sorry, I’m sorry, I’m just repeating the facts.
H: You’re very words has set, you know, chills upmyspine, Liu Yan, how do you feel about the situation?
L: Ok, this is really quite scary, I have to say, because as Nik mentioned, the victory was actually 4-1, but because it was 3 out of 5, best of 5, so as long as you win 3, then you already nailthe final victory. And as it turned out, AlphaGo, 1-3 in the row, so some people was speculating that, you know,AlphaGo actually, through one game in there, just make humans look better, and because he happened to lose the forth one, you know, the one after 3 in the row, I do also believe that it was possible, he kind of just through that away. And now that, you already have one on the score board, and the final one, and I can play my real, according to my real abilityagain.
H: You’ve scared me a second time, as the way you referred to Mr. robotAlphaGo, you use “he”, as if it’s a real person!
L: I know, but you know, somethings you just can’t deny, as far as AI is concerned. AI defeated human a long time ago, when it came to chess. And apparently, a lot of people are saying Go is likely the last safe place, because Go is so much more complicated, and needs much more human factors, human thinking, but now, the last place, is also… (HY: The laststraw ofthe world chess play. )it also gone, so, it should be very scary. It should be worried.
H: Yes, and I think Nik, you make a really good point, that because the robot can learn, it can learn! Oh my gosh! So can we say that we don’t necessarily know that where the robots are going to arrive at, since it’slike a person that can learn things, and there is sort of cognitive activity going on, and is it fair to say as this way.
N: I think, not quite. I think (HY: good, good), it can learn, but you know it developesstrategies when it does something wrong and it can learn how not to do that thing wrong again, the next time, but it doesn’t mean it can apply that acknowledge to anything outside the realms of the games necessarily. (HY: thank you, Nik, Thank you very much.) I also think although Go is a big advancement from chess, and it’s much more complicated game for humans as well as machine to learn how to play, other games where there is a kind of hidden aspect, like poker for example, it’s gonna be another kind of milestone, ifthe artificial intelligence learns how to do that, because in Go although it is very complicated, you know all the pieces are out on the table though, both side can see them, so it can learn those kind of strategies where if there was more hidden element, where you have to read another person, the opposite player, maybeisn’t quite there yet.
L: That’s really a good point, because if you don’t see everything on the table, then you have to rely on watching someone’s facial expressions for example, and trying to figure out what he or she is exactly thinking, and since this was not involved at this stage, it’s relatively easy for the machine to beat the people, because the machine doesn’t have to do all that. And also, I know we have been painting a very scary picture as for, but if you don’t want to be scared, you can just think this way, cause at the end of the day, AlphaGo is still just a computer program, and who design that program? Humans. So computer programs cannot do something that human… if you don’t put it in the program. Then they certainly cannot do that. So as long as you don’t put it in the program for them to be so awesome, so intelligent, the program won’t be so awesome, so intelligent.
H: You make a really good point, and also, if we have a directfirmanswer that we can control the robots in the way they so called think and develop, that they’re always in the control of the hands of humans, then I wouldn’t be so scared, but the reason why people like myself who don’t know much about technology, it is very happy to sleep in mycavewithout any advanced technology at my hand, I’m happy to live like that alright, we’re scared because we don’t know where this is going. Guys, what did the tycoons say?And where is this going?
N: Mark Zuckerberg from facebook said he predicted there will be more big advances for artificial intelligence in just next decade. So we not quite finished yet in terms of the development. He said the artificial intelligence will understand senses, such as vision and hearing, and grasp language better than human beings over the next 5 to 10 years. And he highlighted the company Oculus VR, saying that it’sgoing to start producing its product virtual reality products and it could generate $110 billion by 2025, so it is a big business as well as artificial intelligence.
L: And of course, Lei Jun, who is the founder of Xiaomi, also seems very optimistic. And he said, he expects AI to be able to beat a human champion at the current stage of development since it's a pretty complicated game, and he also said that now that we’re already see that AlphaGo beat human beings, you can expect that it will attract more capital and talent to the AI sector, so obviously, it will be more developed even in the future.
N: One for you Heyang, Jack Mar says, there is no need for humans to fear the machines, he says, the machines will be stronger and smarter than human beings, but they will never be wiser, because wisdom, soul and heart are things that only human beings possess, isn’t that beautiful.
H: That is beautiful, but you know, the cynic in me says‘Mr. Jack Madoesn’t sound like you know, that much about AI,’ sorry to say this, but because he is saying, OK, wisdom, fine, soul, fine, heart, fine, these aregreat concepts, but if the robot, it’s so clever, and if you can’t control it, this is all presumptions alright, then with the means nothing, if it can surpass you in other ways, and can terminateyou, that is notgonna happen everybody, I’m not going tosend scares or spread that.
L: But I do think your worry is kind of valued, I don’t know if you guys have seen the film “her” from a couple of years ago. Scarlett Johansson (HY: oh, she is so hot. Oh, excuse me, I’m going to the wrong direction.) with her computer program, but a guy, played by Joaquin Phoenix, is totally to be able to be attracted just to a computer program, because she has possessed all those qualities, she has heart, she has soul, and she has intelligence, wisdom, so it is possible. And also last year, there was a film called “Ex Machina”, I don’t know if you have seen that, that one is even scarier, because in that one, robots actually were so clever and so manipulative, they eventually killed humans.
H: And like so many other Hollywood films, they played with insecurity and anxiety in this area, because we don’t know what’s gonna to happen in the future, and if we are being colonized by robots, that kind of thing.Here on wechat, our listener Lin Yingdong, says I want a robot companion, I mean, girl, why? I’dbe scared, and like Japanese people are known for this, they’ve got a whole bunch of…like robot pet dogs, robot companions, and how could like human emotion be placed in that regard, I mean, I don’t know what is going on here.
N: Now, it is a definitely area that you can easily see why people are scared or hate. I think, the more we have this conversation, the more I’m falling into that campas well I think. It is interesting that someone said that they would like a robot companion, I mean, what kind of companionship, someone sit in your house, and like to talk to, can it to talk back?
L: This might be off the topic, but you know what this reminds me, it totally reminds me of the “大白”character from the Big Hero 6, (HY: the Baymax) yeah, the Baymax from the Big Hero 6, maybe she was thinking about the robot companion like that. That would be adorable, I would want one like that as well.
H: Alright, I’m happy to be your friend, Liu Yan, (Nik: a human being.) Yeah, your blood and fresh, a real person.
L: That would be the best, however, a robot could be very cuddly, which not necessarily, you know, human beings can do.
H: What? Cuddlier than human beings? LY, What’s going on?
L: I’m thinking about Baymax in particular.
H: Baymax is cute. But yes, I think the ultimateworry for people is whether this technology can be controlled by people, and I mean, scientists out there that must be the bottom line that I think is really needed here. And just quickilybefore we go on to the next topic guys, a lot of people are saying that so many jobs are just gonna be takenover by robots, and I think a couple of months ago on this show, we talked about that even some of the news stories but news stories, alright, only reporting news without much of human touch, those kind of stories have been written by robot journalists. (Nik: we’re still safe now.) Are we? Are we? So what are the jobs that you think are gonna disappear the landscape from the job market for humans, and how can we deal the situation.
L: I think if a job requires a lot of data or to be processed or a great deal of routine to be repeated, then this job probably will be tookoverby robots, because it’s relatively easy. However, if this is a job requires a lot of creative input, for example, if you are an artist, I don’t think that would be easily replaceable by any robots any time soon. So it’s really depends on the quality or the specific requirement of the job.
N: Anything, any kind of job where you perform repetitive kind of continuousaction throughout the day doesn’t change that much, I think something robots probably do better in a lot of cases, cause they’re soquick and efficient and also you don’t have to pay them.
H: So, yeah, you don’t need to pay for them, but you need to charge the battery probably, keep them connect to the electronic sockets and those kind of things. And yeah, our wechat listener Jessy has something pretty smart to say regarding this topic. She says about the list of jobs that will easily be replaced in the future by the robots has gone viral on wechat right now, and like accountants, security guards, cleaning jobs, and delivering jobs, these things might have no place for humans in the future, but what distinguishes us from robots is that we, as human beings are able to feel stuff, we are not emotionless. So she holds this slightly positive view that is, you know, there is still place for humans as long as humans are in the control position, but it’s going to be hard to defend that position if the technology is that advanced, and I think this is one of those high grounds we have to guard as humans...
