介绍:
The German problem 德国的问题
Why Germany’s current-account surplus is bad for the world economy 为什么德国的经常账户盈余反而对世界经济不利
The country saves too much and spends too little 德国存的太多而画的太少
主播：凤梨君 个人微信号：fenglisama 微信公众号：EnglishQiPa
Jul 8th 2017
THE battle-lines are drawn. When the world’s big trading nations convene this week at a G20 summit in Hamburg, the stage is set for a clash between a protectionist America and a free-trading Germany.
1 current-account surplus 经常账户盈余 2convene |kənˈvi:n| 召集，召开（正式会议）3 汉堡（德国西北部一城市）4 protectionism |prəˈtekʃənɪzəm|（贸易）保护主义
本周党世界上各大贸易国在汉堡召开了G20峰会后，两方对垒的战线就正式拉开了，一边是信奉贸易保护主义的美国，另一个则是主张自由贸易的德国。
President Donald Trump has already pulled out of one trade pact, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and demanded the renegotiation of another, the North American Free-Trade Agreement. He is weighing whether to impose tariffs on steel imports into America, a move that would almost certainly provoke retaliation. The threat of a trade war has hung over the Trump presidency since January. In contrast, Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor and the summit’s host, will bang the drum for free trade. In a thinly veiled attack on Mr Trump, she delivered a speech on June 29th condemning the forces of protectionism and isolationism. An imminent free-trade deal between Japan and the European Union will add substance to her rhetoric (see article).
1pull out (of sth)：同 withdraw 脱离；退出 2 pact|pækt| 条约；协议；公约 3 weigh |weɪ|认真考虑；权衡；斟酌 4 tariff |ˈtærɪf|关税 5retaliation |rɪˌtæliˈeɪʃn|报复 6 contrast |ˈkɒntrɑ:st; 美 ˈkɑ:ntræst| 明显的差异；对比；对照 7bang |bæŋ| 猛敲；砸 8 drum |drʌm| 鼓 9 thinly |ˈθɪnli|容易识破的；显而易见的 10 veiled |veɪld| 含蓄的；掩饰的 11condemn |kənˈdem|谴责，指责 12 isolationism |ˌaɪsəˈleɪʃənɪzəm|孤立主义 13 imminent |ˈɪmɪnənt| 即将发生的；临近的 14substance |ˈsʌbstəns| 事实基础；根据 15 rhetoric |ˈretərɪk| 华而不实的言语；花言巧语
There is no question who has the better of this argument. Mr Trump’s doctrine that trade must be balanced to be fair is economically illiterate. His belief that tariffs will level the playing field is naive and dangerous: they would shrink prosperity for all. But in one respect, at least, Mr Trump has grasped an inconvenient truth. He has admonished Germany for its trade surplus, which stood at almost $300bn last year, the world’s largest (China’s hoard was a mere $200bn). His threatened solution—to put a stop to sales of German cars—may be self-defeating, but the fact is that Germany saves too much and spends too little. And the size and persistence of Germany’s savings hoard makes it an awkward defender of free trade.
1 the better of 挫败…；占上风 2doctrine |ˈdɒktrɪn| 正式声明 教义；主义；学说；信条 3illiterate |ɪˈlɪtərət| 了解不多的，外行的 ；不会读写的；不识字的；文盲的 4 level the playing field： to create a situation where everyone has the same opportunities 创造人人机会均等的局面 5 inconvenient truth 难以忽视的真相/不愿面对的事实 6 inconvenient |ˌɪnkənˈvi:niənt| 不方便的；引起麻烦的；造成困难的 7 admonish |ədˈmɒnɪʃ | 责备；告诫；警告 8 trade surplus 外贸盈余；贸易顺差 9 hoard |hɔ:d; 美 hɔ:rd| 贮存，聚藏；（尤指）秘藏 10 self-defeating 事与愿违的；适得其反的；弄巧成拙的 11 persistence |pəˈsɪstəns| 坚持；锲而不舍
Imperfect harmony At bottom, a trade surplus is an excess of national saving over domestic investment. In Germany’s case, this is not the result of a mercantilist government policy, as some foreigners complain. Nor, as German officials often insist, does it reflect the urgent need for an ageing society to save more. The rate of household saving has been stable, if high, for years; the increase in national saving has come from firms and the government.
1 At bottom： used to say what sb/sth is really like 归根结底；本质上；实际上 2 excess |ɪkˈses| 过多的量；超过的量 3 mercantilism |mɜ:ˈkæntɪlɪzəm; 美 mɜ:rˈk-| 重商主义，商业本位（认为商业可增加财富）
Underlying Germany’s surplus is a decades-old accord between business and unions in favour of wage restraint to keep export industries competitive (see article). Such moderation served Germany’s export-led economy well through its postwar recovery and beyond. It is an instinct that helps explain Germany’s transformation since the late 1990s from Europe’s sick man to today’s muscle-bound champion.
1 underlying |ˌʌndəˈlaɪɪŋ | 根本的；潜在的；隐含的 2 accord |əˈkɔ:d |协议；条约 3 union |ˈju:niən| 公会 4 wage restraint 工资控制 5 moderation |ˌmɒdəˈreɪʃn |适度；适中；合理 6 instinct |ˈɪnstɪŋkt |本能；天性 天赋
There is much to envy in Germany’s model. Harmony between firms and workers has been one of the main reasons for the economy’s outperformance. Firms could invest free from the worry that unions would hold them to ransom. The state played its part by sponsoring a system of vocational training that is rightly admired. In America the prospects for men without college degrees have worsened along with a decline in manufacturing jobs—a cause of the economic nationalism espoused by Mr Trump. Germany has not entirely escaped this, but it has held on to more of the sorts of blue-collar jobs that America grieves for. This is one reason why the populist AfD party remains on the fringes of German politics.
1outperform|ˌaʊtpəˈfɔ:m | （效益上）超过，胜过 2 hold sb to ransom 胁迫；要挟 3 vocational |vəʊˈkeɪʃənl |职业的；职业技术的；业务知识的 4 sponsor |ˈspɒnsə(r) |主办；举办；促成 5 prospect |ˈprɒspekt; 美 ˈprɑ:s-| 前景；展望；设想 6 espouse |ɪˈspaʊz| 支持，拥护，赞成（信仰、政策等）7 hold on to sth | hold onto sth 保住（优势）；不送（或不卖）某物 8 afD 德国选择党 9 fringe |frɪndʒ|（地区或群体的）边缘
But the adverse side-effects of the model are increasingly evident. It has left the German economy and global trade perilously unbalanced. Pay restraint means less domestic spending and fewer imports. Consumer spending has dropped to just 54% of GDP, compared with 69% in America and 65% in Britain. Exporters do not invest their windfall profits at home. And Germany is not alone; Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and the Netherlands have been piling up big surpluses, too.
1 perilous |ˈperələs| 危险的；艰险的 2 windfall |ˈwɪndfɔ:l| 意外之财；意外获得的东西 2 pile |paɪl| up 堆积；积压
For a large economy at full employment to run a current-account surplus in excess of 8% of GDP puts unreasonable strain on the global trading system. To offset such surpluses and sustain enough aggregate demand to keep people in work, the rest of the world must borrow and spend with equal abandon. In some countries, notably Italy, Greece and Spain, persistent deficits eventually led to crises. Their subsequent shift towards surplus came at a heavy cost. The enduring savings glut in northern Europe has made the adjustment needlessly painful. In the high-inflation 1970s and 1980s Germany’s penchant for high saving was a stabilising force. Now it is a drag on global growth and a target for protectionists such as Mr Trump
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