Tesla 2015年报电话会议

Musk的声音和他的外形不成正比呀~~~ 配图泰国Tiffany蓝小车，感觉很清新呀 BTW，我把Q&A之前的部分会议速记放上来，有需要的同学可以参考 Jeff Evanson Vice President of Investor Relations Thank you, Latiff, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla Chairman and CEO; J.B. Straubel, our CTO; CFO, Jason Wheeler; and Jon McNeill, President of Global Sales, Service and Delivery. Our Q4 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast. As usual, this letter includes GAAP and non-GAAP financial information and reconciliations between the 2. During our call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. We're going to start today's call with some comments by Elon and then Jason, and then we'll go into the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] And with that, I'll turn it over to you, Elon. Elon R. Musk Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect Thank you. So I think the newsletter probably speaks for itself, but I'll add some commentary on some of the lead points. So obviously, we had a huge increase in Model S deliveries year-on-year in Q4 last year, going up 76%. We had a huge change in our core operational cash flow, which you can really see in the chart, and it's really quite dramatic. That's why I think it's interesting to look at in chart form. It goes from negative to significantly positive in Q4 last year. And then we made modest improvements in Model S gross margin, getting to about 25%, excluding onetime items, and we feel pretty good about where we're tracking to probably get close to 30% by the -- by about Q4 this year. And then something I'm personally quite excited about is that we expect to be positive cash flow starting next month and then continue on into Q2 and beyond. And that's -- there's only one caveat there that's including the asset-backed line, and the asset-backed line is -- that's just funding for cars that are en route to customers. So particularly as sales to international markets increases, there's more finished goods inventory on its way to customers. And so inclusive of the asset-backed line, which really I think is -- was accurately regarded as a slight decrease in the gross margin of the car by about roughly 0.1% or thereabouts, apart from that, we're positive cash flow. And then we're expecting to be profitable for 2016 on a non-GAAP basis. And I personally think that, that is actually the correct way to think -- to look at it because of the way that GAAP treats lease accounting. And -- but then nonetheless, despite the lease accounting stuff, we anticipate being profitable by GAAP standards in Q4 of this year. And then we're really looking forward to the -- building the Model 3 on -- at the end of next month. I think this is going to be really well received and then getting into production and delivery at the end of next year. Touching on a few things that are in the bulk of the newsletter. I think the chart on vehicle demand is really interesting. And to the degree that this represents a microcosm of how Tesla vehicles will be received in other vehicle segments, it all goes extremely well for the future. So the Model S was the best-selling premium sedan in the United States last year of any kind. And our sales actually increased by 51%, whereas everybody else's sales declined and the overall market segment declined by about 1%. So I think this is -- it's really rare to see situations like this. And I think this is despite us being really quite underpenetrated in the Northeast. I think there's a lot of room for growth in the Northeast particularly in the U.S. and in international markets in general. So -- but essentially, getting to a 25% market share of all premium sedans in the U.S. is, I think, a great achievement of the Tesla team. And I think it's also great for the world because it means that's 25,000 pure gas guzzlers that are on the road. I'd like to thank all the customers that went out and bought that car because I think they're making a difference for the environment. And of course, they're helping pay for the future development of the Model 3, which is the more affordable mass-market car. That's where we put all of the revenue we receive from the Model S and X. So it's always important to bear that in mind, that S and X are what pay for the Model 3. And that's -- and one additional note is that Tesla does not advertise. We don't pay for any endorsements. We do not discount our cars for anyone, including me. I pay full retail price. Whereas those actions are -- all of our competitors take those actions. So that's, I think, quite interesting. We also have far fewer sales outlets than our competitors. So essentially, there's a lot of degrees of freedom that we are not exercising that we could, in theory, exercise. I think -- oh and if you look at the text, it's worth noting that this is not just uniquely true in the United States. But in Switzerland, we outsold -- the Model S outsold the Mercedes S-Class, the BMW 7 Series, Porsche Panamera and the Audi 8 combined and also outsold the Mercedes E-Class. And in Germany, we outsold the Porsche Panamera. So I think these are pretty good situations. I mean, this is even in places that have no incentives. Obviously, incentives are certainly helpful. They're a catalyst for sales. They're -- so Tesla always appreciates the incentives, and I think they make a difference in accelerating the advent of electric vehicles. But sometimes incentives are characterized as it's sort of all about incentives or not at all about incentives. And it's really important to appreciate that incentives are an accelerant. But that's the reality of them. Jason, do you want to add anything? Jason S. Wheeler Chief Financial Officer Sure, absolutely. Thanks, Elon. First of all, I look forward to working with everybody. I'm super excited to be here, as excited as I was on the first day I walked through the door. Just 3 quick things I want to touch on real quick. Number one, gross margin, lots of moving parts this quarter. And let me walk you guys through it a little bit. We had over $67 million in Model X ramp-up costs and nonrecurring items in the quarter, as Elon mentioned. Correcting for these items, automotive gross margin, excluding ZEV credits, would have been 25%. First thing, the major component here is labor and overhead and depreciation related to the Model X launch. The way for you all to think about this is towards end of Q3 and into Q4, we had to bring the workforce into the factory to build these wonderful vehicles. Also, as soon as start-up production starts, the clock starts hitting on depreciation as well. So that's what's going on there. We also had some asset impairments, one with our old paint shop. And we've now got a state-of-the-art paint shop in place, which is going to give us the capacity that we need all the way through Model 3... Elon R. Musk Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect Yes, that's 10,000 cars a week too. Jason S. Wheeler Chief Financial Officer Yes, 10,000 cars a week. So this is a good story, and these are assets that we had purchased all -- go all the way back to the NUMMI days. So we got every bit of life out of those assets as we possibly could. The other big piece here is we had an E&O write-off, excess and obsolescence. This is a result of better production control and inventory management systems that we put in place. The place is moving really fast, and we took some time, Elon talked about this in Q2 on the earnings call during the shutdown, putting better systems in place to track this. We're moving to a place where we're tracking E&O on a real-time basis and bringing those facts to the table when we're making decisions. So we shouldn't be in this position again. Next thing I wanted to talk about just real quickly was cash flow. And Elon covered this, and I think the chart on the face of the shareholder letter really gets there. But we were within striking distance of positive operating cash flows there. And when you add back the leasing proceeds that we get of $209 million, it's a great step change in the right direction to getting us to net cash flow positive. Also CapEx, we guided to $500 million last quarter on the call, and we closed out at $411 million for the quarter. That all resulted in ending cash balance being at $1.2 billion, which I think showcases our strong improvement in cash management and discipline with the company. Finally and really quickly, talk about capital structure. We closed the warehouse line that we previously had before and opened the ABL, as Elon mentioned. Think of this as a shift to lower-cost financing. We've got a better deal on this line. So I think it's a better way to think about that. Intended uses one, we'll continue to monetize our direct leases as we did with the warehouse line. But it also creates an option for us to finance our ramp in FGI as the Model X hits full production scale. I'll just close by saying my mandate from Elon is clear: cash is king. And there's some real steps that we're taking as a company to get ourselves to net cash flow positive for the year... Elon R. Musk Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect And profitability. Jason S. Wheeler Chief Financial Officer And profitability. It's just capital efficiency in CapEx. CapEx in 2016, as we said in the past, will be less than it was in 2015. We started to see some of this in Q4. It will continue. We're also getting to a point where we have operating leverage in the business. We'll continue to aggressively manage our growth in expenses. And then finally, and I walk around and I'm on this every day, is a relentless focus on automotive unit cost reductions. So that's my mandate. Again, I'm happy to be here. And, Elon, if you've got nothing else, we go to Q&A. Elon R. Musk Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect Yes. Actually, I guess one other point that's sort of interesting to note is that Tesla is approximately doubling its cumulative sales every year. So this is -- I'm not sure if this has happened in the car industry for maybe a century. But like we started the beginning of last year with 50,000 cars en route, then we ended with 100,000 this year, we're maybe 60% to 80%. So if we're at the high end of that range, we again sort of potentially double the size of the fleet. And I just think that's pretty exciting and unusual. So thank you. We'll go to Q&A.