DWD20200321

David's Time With Peter F. Drucker 2020.3.21 The Collapsing Birthrate The most important single new certainly——if only because there is no precedent for it in all of history——is the collapsing birthrate in the developed world. In Western and Central Europe and in Japan, the birthrate has already fallen well below the rate needed to reproductive age. In some of Italy's richest regions, for example, in Bologna, the birthrate by the year 1999 had fallen to 0.8; in Japan to 1.3. In fact, Japan and all of Southern Europe——Portugal, Spain, Southern France, Italy, Greece——are drifting toward collective national suicide by the end of the 21st century. By then Italy's population, for instance——now 60 million——might be down to 20 or 22 million; Japan's population——now 125 million——might be down to 50 or 55 million. But even in Western and Northern Europe the birthrates are down to 1.5 and falling. But in the United States, too, the birthrate is now below 2 and going down steadily. And it is as high as it is only because of the large number of recent immigrants who still, for the first generation, tend to retain the high birthrate of their country of origin, for example, Mexico. ——《Management Challenges for the 21st Century · Chapter2》(Peter F.Drucker,1999)