DWD20200323

David's Time With Peter F. Drucker 2020.3.23 There is no precedent for this. The birthrate within part of the Roman Empire may have been falling after A.D. 200 or 250 but, of course, there are no figures. Above all, there is no precedent for a population structure in which old people past any traditional retirement age outnumber young people as they already do in parts of Europe and as they will do in all developed countries well before the middle of the 21st century. For at least two hundred years, all institutions of the modern world and especially all business have assumed a steadily growing population. In the West the population has been growing since 1400. And from 1700 on the growth has been very fast——until well after World War Ⅱ. Population growth in Japan began around 1600 or so, that is, after the end of the Civil Wars. It speeded up around 1800 and has continued until well after World War Ⅱ. But increasingly, in all developed countries, the strategy of all institutions will have to be based, from now on, on the totally different assumption of a shrinking population, and especially of a shrinking young population. ——《Management Challenges for the 21st Century · Chapter2》(Peter F.Drucker,1999)