《外刊精读》别轻信嗓门最大的人

充满不确定性的年代，别轻信嗓门最大的人  在这个充满不确定性的时代，人们似乎更容易被说话笃定的人吸引。人们似乎更容易听从那些惯用判断句的“权威人士”。而如果一个人喜欢使用“可能”“也许”等有不确定意味的词汇，其影响力就会被削弱。但事实上，坚决肯定的态度并不总是意味着正确的判断和恰当的意见。这种给予言辞肯定的人过度回报的趋势是因何而起？又会给社会带来怎样的影响？一起进入今天的讲解。   英文原文  In uncertain times, certainty is over-rated and over-rewarded  在充满不确定的年代，确定性被高看了  By Jemima Kelly  Type the words "kind of", "probably" or "perhaps" into an email in Microsoft Outlook and the program might well tell you to think again. If the artificial intelligence-powered "Microsoft Editor" decides you're not sounding decisive enough, it will warn you: "Words expressing uncertainty lessen your impact."  当你在使用微软的Outlook软件写邮件时，如果输入了“有点儿”“可能”“也许”这样的字眼，该软件可能就会提醒你再斟酌一下。如果这个人工智能驱动的“微软编辑器”判断认为你的措辞听上去不够坚决果断，它就会提醒你：“含有不确定意味的词语会削弱你的影响力。”  To me, this suggestion encapsulates something we've got wrong in society. We live in a world that rewards those who speak with conviction — even when that is misplaced — and gives very little airtime to those who acknowledge doubt.  在我看来，这个建议概括地体现了社会上的一个误区。我们所生活的这个世界会奖励那些说话更笃定的人，哪怕他们说的内容并不恰当。而那些承认自己拿不准的人，却很少得到表现的机会。  "We are drawn to, and more inclined to listen to, those pundits who tell us a simple, clear, confident story. Why? Because that's psychologically satisfying," says Dan Gardner, author of Future Babble. "That's saying ‘let me sweep away the uncertainty for you'."  《愚言未来》一书的作者丹•加德纳表示：“我们总是被那些把话讲得简明、清晰、笃定的权威人士吸引，也更倾向于听从他们的言论。这是为什么呢？因为那会让人得到心理上的满足。他们等于是在说‘让我来为你们扫清不确定性’。”  While confident-sounding pundits might be giving us what our brains crave, the relief they are providing is probably illusory. Psychology professor Philip Tetlock divided up forecasters into "foxes" and "hedgehogs". Foxes consider all sorts of different approaches and perspectives, and synthesise those into nuanced conclusions. Hedgehogs tend to view the world through the lens of one single defining idea. That makes the hedgehogs worse forecasters but more likely to get attention.  虽然那些听上去信心满满的权威人士可能提供了我们大脑渴望的东西，但或许他们带来的安慰却是虚幻的。心理学教授菲利普·泰洛克把“预测者”分为“狐狸”和“刺猬”两种类型。“狐狸”会考虑各种不同的方法和观点，然后把这些综合分析，得出细致入微的结论。而“刺猬”则倾向于通过一种单一明确的观点来看待世界。因此，“刺猬”其实是较差的“预测者”，但他们更容易获得关注。  Perhaps we care less about the truth and more about being lulled into some sense of security, however ephemeral that might be. Is it time to give a bit more attention to the foxes?  也许，我们更在乎的不是真相，而是某种在别人引导下产生的安全感，不管这种安全感是多么的短暂易逝。现在，是不是应该给“狐狸们”多一点关注了呢？