介绍:
Zhao Yang: Well China’s central bank announced that their planning to reduce the down payment requirements for new home buyers in most of China’s cities. So Victor why did the authorities make the policy changes now?
Victor Gao: Firstly, I would say that the policy change is long overdue. I would say the sluggishness in the Chinese economy over the past couple of years has been one of the reasons, but one of the [other] reasons might be the misguided policies of the government in the property market. First of all, the property market is very local and the policies of the property market needs to be localized for the specific nature of the property market in each different city. Whereas in the China, the central bank is very much accustomed to issuing one policy which covers the whole of China, and China is very big. And of course it creates a lot of mismatches in the market, and right now this new change in the government policy creates flexibility in those cities within which commercial banks can exercise more discretion and judgment in adjusting the mortgage rate for the new home buyers when they want to borrow.
Zhao Yang: Robert how do you see this reduction of the down payment requirement; is this another way to ease restrictions that were added during the high growth years, or is this in line with the de-stocking themes within the property market here in China.
Robert Whitelaw: That’s a great question. There are two ways to look at this. One is that the regulators are taking the measures that they need to take that are stimulating the areas that need to be stimulated; that they are being responsive to some of the slow downs that we’ve seen, some of the house price decreases. And also hat they are being responsive to some of this access inventory which is in line with the de-stocking theme. I mean there’s no doubt that excess inventory is a problem, and that if they can stimulate the market and increase the demand, increase the number of new-home buyers then reducing this excess inventory (which clearly has a downward effect on house prices) makes sense. That’s the positive spin. The negative spin is that this is somewhat of a move of desperation which is that they are looking for whatever lever they have to stimulate the economy and because they feel like they have a lever in real estate and the housing market in particular, that they are willing to push that lever to try and stimulate the housing market. This is even though, part of the reason the economy got into trouble in the first place is the over stimulation in real estate.
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